As of 7am Friday, October 18th, Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is sitting out in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm may develop further but regardless of development, is projected to maintain its east, north east track. This is what that means for us:
- A lot of rain
- Storm surge: the water will be moving much quicker than normal
- Potential for waterspouts/tornadoes in the morning hours
- Gusty winds
Wind Forecast
There are a lot of discrepancies among forecast models on wind direction. We have seen ESE winds shifting to S winds and other models showing a straight W wind. This has to do with two variables: 1. how fast the storm is moving and 2. how far north the storm goes.
Our Prediction
Saturday
Storms will cause gusty and shifty winds throughout most of the day. Winds will start SE and shift to the S mid-morning/ early afternoon. Later in the day the wind will shift to the SW.
With so much rain and storm activity, the wind will be very gusty. There may be periods of 30-40 kts in some of the storms and 15 kts or less when the storms pass.
Sunday
If the storm moves as quick as they predict, Tampa Bay will not get much wind on Sunday. Maybe 10-13 kts out of the SW in the late morning/ early afternoon.
Bottomline
Keep tracking the storm on the National Hurricane Center, Baynews 9 and iKitesurf. We believe that Saturday morning will be a wash, too much rain and gusty winds. Saturday afternoon still has a high rain chance but is the best possible chance to get some kiteboarding in. If you do decide to go kiteboarding, be advised:
- know your skill level
- be aware of storms
- be aware of rip currents
- know the area you kiteboard
- bring a friend
We are on the rainy side to this storm so conditions will be difficult to predict. On a positive, it looks as if we’ll get frontal winds Tuesday through next weekend. Frontal winds are much more reliable and consistent with a lesser chance of rainfall. We are in kiteboarding season so there will be more wind soon!
